A 27-24 Buffalo win is the prediction from the Arizona Republic’s Jeremy Cluff. This is part of what he wrote: “The Bills have won five in a row and are a perfect 4-0 at Highmark Stadium. Josh Allen and Buffalo will win a thriller over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.”

Receiver Keon Coleman being out is also significant. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves challenging opponents with aggressive man coverage, and Coleman being unavailable (with fellow receiver Amari Cooper listed as questionable, too) leaves the Bills with fewer answers than they might’ve had previously.

With the potential for Buffalo to get ahead of the game script, Allen will have more chances to run the ball, as will running back James Cook. Plus, Allen has topped this prop in two of the three matchups against the Chiefs over the past three years, so look for that trend to continue.